Domestic substitution of aluminum-plastic film has become a trend, and the market share has accelerated

It is estimated that the compound growth rate of demand in the aluminum-plastic film industry from 2021 to 2025 is 26%, and domestic enterprises have achieved technological breakthroughs and domestic substitution Welcome development opportunities.

 

Summary

· The key material for battery lightweight has three major barriers:material, process and Equipment,.Aluminum-plastic film is mainly used for cell packaging of soft-pack batteries, and is a key material that determines the reliability and safety of batteries.It has strict requirements in terms of barrier properties, cold stamping formability, chemical stability and insulation, especially Power batteries continue to put forward higher requirements on the mechanical strength and service life of aluminum-plastic films, and the technical barriers of the entire industry are high and continue to improve.

 

· BYD's entry into the market will accelerate the growth in demand for aluminum-plastic films, and the penetration rate of domestic soft-pack power batteries may increase rapidly.European car companies mainly focus on the soft pack route, and the installed capacity in 2020 will account for 42%, while the installed capacity of domestic soft pack power batteries is less than 4GWh, and the penetration rate is only 6%.Soft-pack power battery has two advantages of high energy density and high safety, and is an important direction for the development of power battery technology.At the beginning of 2021, BYD began to adopt the "soft case + hard case" solution in DMI models.Lithium iron phosphate can solve the pain point of soft case batteries being punctured and caught fire in extreme cases, and has become a catalyst for domestic soft case battery demand.According to our calculations, the global soft pack battery shipments are expected to reach 650GWh in 2025, corresponding to 638 million square meters of aluminum-plastic film demand, with a compound growth rate of 26% from 2021 to 2025.Calculated at an average price of 22 yuan/square meter, the global aluminum-plastic film market will exceed 14 billion yuan in 2025.

 

· The localization of materials accelerates the import substitution of aluminum-plastic films, and the industry has reached a turning point.Aluminum-plastic film is a rare link in lithium battery materials that has not been fully localized, and the localization rate is less than 25%, especially in the field of power, which is almost completely occupied by Japanese companies.Domestic aluminum-plastic film is mainly limited by raw materials.Some low-end and all high-end aluminum-plastic film raw materials rely on imports.After the localization of raw materials breaks through, the import substitution of aluminum-plastic film will accelerate.The price of domestic aluminum-plastic film is 10%-30% lower than that of imports, and the high cost performance plus the lack of production capacity and supply of overseas enterprises.

 

· Solid-state batteries are the inevitable choice.① The pouch battery adopts the lamination process, and the cylindrical and square batteries mostly use the winding process.Due to the poor flexibility of the inorganic solid electrolyte membrane, it cannot be wound, so the soft package lamination process can only be used; ② During the migration process of lithium ions, the Forming the overall expansion and contraction, the ductility of the aluminum-plastic film is better than that of the aluminum shell, which is more suitable for the soft package route; ③ The soft package is lighter, which is conducive to improving the energy density of the battery, which is more in line with the original intention of developing solid-state batteries.

 

· Investment suggestion:The domestic substitution trend of aluminum-plastic film has become a trend, and the companies that take the lead in passing the certification and mass production enjoy the opportunity of industry development.It is recommended to focus on Zijiang enterprises in the first echelon of production capacity (covering light industry), Xinlun New Materials (covering chemical industry) and Mingguan New Materials with technical highlights.It is recommended to pay attention to TD Optical (covering chemical industry), Huazheng New Materials (covering chemical industry) Electronics industry coverage), and aluminum-plastic film raw material companies:Wanshun New Materials (light industry coverage), Huafeng Aluminum, Mingtai Aluminum, Jiemei Technology (electronics industry coverage).

 

· Risk warning:The sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected, the penetration rate of soft pack batteries is lower than expected, and overseas aluminum-plastic film manufacturers are expanding production on a large scale.

 

1.Aluminum-plastic film:key material for battery lightweight

Aluminum-plastic film is an important material for soft pack batteries and plays a key role in the lightweight of batteries.Aluminum-plastic film is mainly used for the cell packaging of soft-pack batteries.It has strict requirements in terms of barrier properties, cold stamping formability, puncture resistance, chemical stability and insulation.It has been widely used in new energy vehicles, consumer In the production of batteries such as electronics and energy storage.Because the aluminum-plastic film is lighter than the aluminum shell and steel shell, and the pouch battery adopts the lamination process to make the battery structure more compact, the pouch battery is 40% lighter than the steel shell square battery and 20% lighter than the aluminum shell square battery under the same capacity.The capacity of the soft pack battery is 50% higher than that of the steel shell battery and 20-30% higher than that of the aluminum shell battery, which is the key material for the development of the battery towards light weight and small volume.

 

The soft pack battery has the advantages of high energy density and high safety, and is an important direction for the development of power battery technology.At present, the mainstream packaging processes of lithium batteries include three types:cylindrical, square and soft pack.The components of the three batteries are not very different.The core difference is that the cylindrical and square batteries use metal materials as the outer shell, and the soft pack battery adopts aluminum-plastic film as the outer shell.The main advantages of soft pack batteries are as follows: 

High energy density:According to GGII data, the average energy density of the current mass-produced ternary square power battery is 210-230Wh/kg, while the average energy density of the ternary pouch battery of the same material system is 240-250Wh/kg, The energy density of a single cell is 10%-15% higher than that of a square battery on average;

 

Good safety performance:The mechanical properties of the aluminum-plastic film are not strong.If the battery is thermally out of control, it will generally burst and crack, and will not explode; while the square and cylindrical batteries are packaged in a hard shell, if the heat cannot be released in time, the larger the of internal pressure may cause an explosion.

 

Small internal resistance:The soft pack battery adopts multi-pole ear, which has a small internal resistance, which can greatly reduce the self-consumption of the battery and improve the battery rate and cycle life.After testing, the soft pack battery of the same material system has 4%-7% less attenuation than the aluminum case after 100 cycles.

 

Flexible design:more cells can be accommodated in specific, special-shaped, and small spaces, suitable for various models.

 

Aluminum-plastic film is composed of multiple layers of materials and has strict performance requirements.The outermost layer of the aluminum-plastic film is the outer resistance layer, which is usually composed of nylon or PET.It needs to have good impact resistance, puncture resistance, heat resistance, friction resistance and insulation to protect the inner aluminum foil from being scratched.The middle is a barrier layer, usually composed of aluminum foil, to prevent the intrusion of moisture and oxygen.The innermost layer is the heat-sealing layer, which is usually modified by cast polypropylene, and its main function is to prevent the leaked electrolyte from corroding the aluminum foil layer.In order to ensure the continuous and stable operation of the soft-packed lithium battery without problems such as bulging and liquid leakage, the aluminum-plastic film needs to have extremely high barrier properties, good heat sealing properties, electrolyte resistance, corrosion resistance and strong ductility., flexibility, etc.

 

According to different thickness, aluminum plastic film can be divided into three types:88μm, 113μm, 152μm.88μm aluminum-plastic film is mainly used for batteries with high thinning requirements such as mobile phones, and 113μm is mainly used for power tool products.The power battery field has higher requirements on the strength and appearance of the aluminum-plastic film, and the thickness of 152μm is usually used.This model is more expensive and has higher production process requirements.At present, only four companies in the world can mass-produce them (DNP, Showa Denko, New Lun New Materials, Zijiang Enterprise).

 

2.The new energy track has long slopes and thick snow, driving the long-term prosperity of the battery industry chain

2.1 Lithium battery core materials, industry compound growth rate of 26%

Global soft pack battery shipments continued to rise, driving rapid growth in demand for aluminum-plastic films.According to our calculations, the global installed capacity of soft pack batteries is expected to reach 650GWh in 2025, corresponding to the demand for aluminum-plastic film of 638 million square meters, with a compound growth rate of 26% from 2021 to 2025.Calculated at an average price of 22 yuan/square meter, the global aluminum-plastic film market will exceed 14 billion yuan in 2025.

 

2.2 BYD enters the game, there is huge room for improvement in the penetration rate in the power field

The power sector contributes to the main increase in demand for aluminum-plastic film.According to SNE data, the current global installed capacity of soft packaging accounts for about 28%, mainly used in the digital field.Specifically, the penetration rate of soft pack batteries is 15% in the power field, 10% in the energy storage field, and 85% in the digital field.Soft pack batteries have the advantages of high energy density, good safety, long service life and flexible design under the same weight.It is estimated that by 2025, the global demand for aluminum-plastic film in the power field will be 367 million square meters per year, with a compound growth rate of 56%.

 

Overseas market:European car companies mainly focus on the soft package route, and the proportion of installed capacity is rising rapidly.According to EVsales data, 15 of the top 20 models sold in Europe in 2020 are equipped with soft pack batteries, including Daimler, Nissan, Renault, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Volvo and other well-known car brands.The total sales of these 15 models accounted for 47% of the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe.The increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe has led to the rapid growth of soft-pack battery shipments.According to GGII data, the installed capacity of overseas soft-pack batteries in 2020 will account for 42%, doubling from 2019.

 

 

Domestic market:The three major pain points may all be resolved, and the soft package route is gaining momentum.Due to the rapid rise of the Ningde era and BYD, prismatic batteries have long dominated the country.In 2020, domestic prismatic battery shipments will account for 80%.In contrast, the installed capacity of soft-pack power batteries is less than 4GWh, and the penetration rate is only 6%.Different route preferences at home and abroad are mainly influenced by cost, production technology and capacity supply.

 

Cost:In 2019, the price of LG soft pack battery is about 1.54 yuan/Wh, the price of ternary square battery pack of CATL is about 1.14 yuan/Wh, and the price of Panasonic's cylindrical single cell is about 0.96 yuan/Wh.Under the influence of the subsidy of new energy vehicles, the marginal utility brought about by high energy density is reduced, and OEMs are more sensitive to costs.At present, the production process of pouch battery is gradually mature, and the cost of aluminum-plastic film will gradually decrease after the localization of aluminum-plastic film.

 

Technology:Due to the thin outer packaging of the soft pack battery, it is easy to be pierced in extreme situations.Therefore, a metal protective layer needs to be added to the battery pack to provide more protection, resulting in low grouping efficiency.Soft-pack batteries are also difficult to control in the packaging process, and are prone to problems such as bulging, resulting in poor product consistency.At present, the industry has developed a "soft case + hard case" solution with both high energy density and high safety.At the beginning of 2021, BYD announced that its DMI models began to use soft-pack lithium iron phosphate (also known as small blade) batteries.package.This structural innovation can improve the disadvantage that the pouch battery is easy to be pierced in extreme cases, and is expected to accelerate the penetration rate of the pouch battery.

 

Capacity supply:The soft package suppliers of overseas car companies mainly include LG Chem, SKI and Envision AESC, while domestic companies mainly include Funeng Technology, Gateway, Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Dofluoroduo, Wanxiang 123 , Micro Macro, etc.The rise of pouch cells overseas also benefited from the rapid volume of LG Chem, but the development of domestic pouch cell manufacturers was relatively slow in the past few years.

 

 

The battery factory is actively expanding production, which has formed a strong support for the demand for aluminum plastic film.The safety and high energy density advantages of soft pack batteries are more in line with the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles, and domestic car companies have begun to accelerate their deployment.In 2021, Weilai began to use soft pack batteries, and the batteries carried by Xiaopeng also changed from cylindrical to soft pack.With the cost reduction brought about by technological progress and the upgrading of end-market consumption, the domestic market may be in line with Europe.According to GGII's forecast, China's soft pack power battery shipments may reach 88.6GWh in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 36%.

 

Considering that the global mainstream soft pack battery companies have large-scale expansion plans, and domestic battery leaders such as CATL, BYD and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have also begun to focus on soft packs, it is estimated that by 2025, the global power industry aluminum plastic film The demand is 367 million square meters per year, with a compound growth rate of 56%.

 

2.3 Basic requirements for consumer electronics to build aluminum-plastic film

The increase in shipments in traditional application fields such as mobile phones and tablet computers, as well as emerging applications such as TWS headsets, drones and electronic cigarettes, are the main drivers for the growth of 3C soft pack batteries.In 2020, global consumer battery shipments accounted for 39.9%, of which mobile phones and portable computers shipped 47.7GWh in total, and other digital batteries shipped 69.8GWh.According to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Small Soft Pack Li-ion Battery Industry (2021)" released by EVTank and others, it is estimated that by 2025, the global small soft pack lithium-ion battery shipments will reach 9.60 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.70%.With the increasing demand for high battery life and portability in consumer electronics, downstream battery manufacturers have put forward higher requirements for battery capacity, design flexibility and cycle life.It is expected that the penetration rate of soft pack batteries in mobile phones and portable computers will continue to increase.The demand for plastic film may reach 240 million square meters in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 6%.

 

 

2.4 solid-state batteries may become a major trend, and the soft pack process is the best matching solution

According to the forecast of Lux Research, the market share of solid-state batteries is expected to reach 25% in 2035.Solid-state batteries do not contain flammable, explosive, and volatile components, which can completely eliminate smoke and fire caused by liquid leakage, as well as potential safety hazards caused by lithium dendrites during charging and discharging.They are called the safest battery system.In terms of energy density, solid-state batteries can provide an energy density of about 300-400Wh/kg, far exceeding traditional batteries.

 

The soft pack route is an inevitable choice for solid-state batteries:①The pouch battery adopts the lamination process, and the cylindrical or square battery adopts the winding process.Due to the poor flexibility of the inorganic solid electrolyte membrane, it cannot be wound, and only the soft pack can be used.Lamination process; ② Lithium ions will form an overall expansion and contraction during the migration process, and the ductility of the aluminum-plastic film is better than that of the aluminum shell, which is naturally suitable for the soft pack route; ③ Both solid-state batteries and soft packs have the characteristics of high energy density, The matching of the two can further enhance the battery life advantage.

 

Three, high industry barriers, localization has great potential

3.1 Japanese companies monopolize the global market, and domestic manufacturers "self-research + acquisition" gradually deploy

Japanese and Korean companies account for 73% of global supply.The aluminum-plastic film originated from Japan.The first generation of aluminum-plastic film products was jointly developed and produced by Japan's Showa Denko and Sony in 1999.Later, Dainippon Printing DNP also began to develop independently.At present, Japan's DNP market share is 50%, ranking first in the world, followed by Japan's Showa Denko and South Korea's Limura Chemical, with a market share of 12% and 11% respectively.

 

The total market share of domestic enterprises is 25%.Xinlun New Materials entered the aluminum-plastic film industry through the acquisition of T&T, a subsidiary of Toppan Printing, Japan, and Zijiang Enterprise and Daoming Optics achieved mass supply through their own research and development.my country is the world's most important power battery consumer market, accounting for 44% of the world in 2020.In contrast, the supply status of aluminum-plastic film and the market consumption status are difficult to match.

 

 

3.2 The localization rate is only 25%, and the three major barriers constitute the main obstacle

The difficulty of production is higher than that of the four major base materials, and there are three major barriers of materials, technology and Equipment,.The performance requirements of aluminum-plastic film are extremely high.Most domestic aluminum-plastic films are used in the 3C field with lower requirements, and the localization rate is about 40%; the power field is almost completely occupied by Japanese and Korean enterprises, and domestic enterprises are in the stage of sample delivery and small-scale supply., is a rare link in lithium battery materials that has not been fully localized.

 

 

The aluminum-plastic film process is divided into dry method and thermal method, and the two methods have different advantages.The dry method is to directly bond and press the heat-sealing layer and the aluminum foil layer.Its products have excellent performance in drawing, appearance, cutting, etc., but the resistance to electrolyte and water resistance is weak, and the Equipment, requirements are not high, but the process The process is complicated.The thermal method is thermal synthesis between aluminum foil and CPP with modified polyethylene MPP, which requires high Equipment,.Its products have good resistance to electrolyte and water resistance, but the production process of high temperature and high pressure makes the drawing performance, appearance and cutting performance of the product weak.

 

 

Materials, processes and Equipment, constitute the main obstacles to domestic substitution.In terms of materials, the main raw materials of aluminum-plastic film are nylon, rolled aluminum foil, CPP and adhesives.Some low-end and low-end aluminum-plastic film and all high-end aluminum-plastic film raw materials rely on imports.In terms of technology, the reaction conditions and precision control of domestic aluminum-plastic films are poor, and most of the electrolyte resistance and drawing depth are not satisfactory.The domestic drawing depth is about 5mm, and foreign countries can achieve 8mm or even 12mm.In terms of Equipment, aluminum-plastic film production Equipment, includes aluminum foil coating Machine, dry laminating Machine, double-sided coating Machine, thermal laminating Machine, etc.Among them, the Equipment, required for precision coating relies heavily on imports from Japan.In particular, power-type aluminum-plastic film Equipment, has higher requirements, most of which are customized precision Equipment, and the customization cycle is generally more than 15 months.The certification cycle of power products is also longer, generally 18-24 months.

 

 

Industry barriers continue to rise.The future development direction of lithium-ion batteries is mainly reflected in:(1) miniaturization and thinning to meet the needs of consumer electronic products; (2) large-capacity, high-power charge and discharge to meet the application in power and energy storage fields.The former requires the aluminum-plastic film to develop towards lightness and flexibility while ensuring the barrier properties of water and oxygen, while the latter requires the aluminum-plastic film to have higher mechanical strength, higher barrier properties and longer service life.The continuous improvement of technical requirements makes the industry barriers continue to rise.

 

 

3.3 technology research and development has cleared the clouds, and the inflection point of domestic replacement has reached

The core technology of aluminum plastic film is mostly controlled by overseas companies such as Japan and South Korea.Due to the late start of domestic companies, the production process is constrained by relevant patents and experience, resulting in a certain gap between product performance and imports.In recent years, domestic enterprises have been continuously researching and developing, and have made substantial progress.

 

The subsidy ebbs, the cost comes first, and the domestic aluminum-plastic film enters the power market with its high cost performance.After the transformation of new energy vehicles from policy-oriented to market-oriented, the demand for cost reduction in the battery industry chain is urgent.The price of domestic aluminum-plastic film is generally 10%-30% lower than that of imports.After the breakthrough in the production process, the cost-effectiveness advantage is prominent.Xinlun New Materials, Zijiang Enterprise and Mingguan New Materials have successively started the supply qualification certification of power battery factories.The current progress more smoothly.

 

Overseas companies are cautiously expanding production, and domestic aluminum-plastic films welcome development opportunities.Aluminum-plastic film is not the core business of DNP, Showa and other manufacturers, and overseas generally prefer to switch 3C production capacity to meet the needs of power batteries.After overseas enterprises became the main offensive force, vacancies appeared in the 3C market, which became a breakthrough for domestic alternatives.At the same time, due to the rapid growth in the power field, overseas suppliers are still unable to meet the demand growth after switching production capacity.In this context, domestic aluminum-plastic film companies are actively expanding production, and the market share is expected to enter a period of rapid growth.